AMRO sees Philippines posting third fastest inflation in ASEAN+3 this year

By Katherine K. Chan, Reporter

Philippine inflation this year could be slower than earlier anticipated, but may still be the third fastest among the country’s regional peers, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.

In its latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, the think tank cut its inflation forecast for 2026 to 5.7% from 6% in June, but kept it at 4.1% for 2027.

If realized, inflation will sharply accelerate from the 1.7% last year, marking the hottest clip in three years or since the 6% in 2023.

Both projections would also put the headline print well above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 3% target for two straight years, but slower than its 6.4% estimate for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027.

It would also be the third fastest inflation among ASEAN+3 members this year, trailing only Myanmar with 20% and Laos with 8.1%.

As of the first half of the year, inflation in the Philippines averaged 4.8%.

This came as oil shocks quickly rippled to major commodities like food, transport, and electricity, pushing the headline figure past the BSP’s target for four consecutive months or since the first full month of the Middle East war in March.

Meanwhile, AMRO maintained its growth projections for the Philippines at 4.1% this year and 5.5% in 2027.

If this holds true, the economy will slump to its worst performance since the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2025, Philippine GDP grew by a post-pandemic low of 4.4%.

However, both forecasts still fall within the National Government’s growth targets of 3.5%-4.5% for 2026 and 5%-6% for 2027.

The Singapore-based think tank’s estimates also position the Philippines as the fourth slowest growing economy in ASEAN, just surpassing Brunei (1.9%), Thailand (2.4%), and Myanmar (2.5%).