Roy Cooper has an early, six-point lead in the North Carolina Senate race, according to the first public poll of the marquee contest.
The Emerson College poll, released Friday morning, found the Democratic former North Carolina governor with 47 percent support to Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley’s 41 percent. Another 12 percent of voters are undecided.
The North Carolina Senate race — likely between Cooper and Whatley, who have each cleared their respective primary fields — is expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive in 2026. It’s the top offensive target for Democrats, who must net four seats to retake the Senate. In June, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after clashing with President Donald Trump over his domestic agenda and warning fellow Republicans about the Medicaid cuts in their spending package.
Cooper, who finished his second term in 2024, starts the open race to replace Tillis with stronger name recognition and favorability than Whatley, a first-time candidate. Most voters view Cooper positively, one-third perceive him negatively and just 13 percent are unsure, the poll found.
By contrast, nearly two-thirds of voters do not know or are unsure of Whatley and another 17 percent view him favorably — capturing his challenge to quickly define himself with an electorate that isn’t familiar with him.
Cooper also holds a 19-point edge among independent voters, a significant bloc that supported him during his gubernatorial campaigns. For now, these voters prefer Cooper to Whatley 47 percent to 28 percent.
But in a preview of what will be a tight Senate race in a hyper-partisan environment, voters in purple North Carolina are evenly divided on whom they prefer on the generic congressional ballot: 41.5 percent support would back the Democrat and 41.3 percent would back the Republican.
In the 2028 presidential primary, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads among Democratic voters in North Carolina with 17 percent support. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who opted against a gubernatorial run this week, receives 12 percent, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 10 percent and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 7 percent. Nearly a quarter of the Democratic voters are undecided.
Among Republicans, Vice President JD Vance dominates the GOP primary with 53 percent backing him, compared to 7 percent for Florida Gov. and failed 2024 presidential candidate Ron DeSantis and 5 percent for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Emerson College conducted the poll from July 28 through July 30, interviewing 1,000 registered North Carolina voters. It has a 3-point margin of error.
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