SAN FRANCISCO – Despite higher prices, the Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) is projecting robust sales growth in November and December.
New research from VBEI forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% year-over-year in November and December, the strongest growth since 2021. How and where shoppers spend their money depends on their income.
Consumers told VBEI they plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, an increase of 5.6%. Roughly one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 plan to shift their spending on gifts to lower-cost brands or stores compared with last year.
And while more than half of survey respondents expressed a preference for travel and attending live events during the holidays, only 15% are making that a spending priority. In comparison, 27% are focused on physical gifts.
Higher-income consumers are the outlier. VBEI found that households earning more than $200,000 were the only income cohort to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, with trips booked up 29% and spending up 38% from 2025. At the same time, lower-income groups pulled back sharply on both counts – and looking toward their spending in November and December, they are prioritizing their spend on merchandise.
Visa’s projection of a 4.5% increase in overall spending includes retail, travel and experiences. It also falls in line with the National Retail Federation’s forecast that retail sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31 will rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion.
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. “Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season.”
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